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Aug 31, 2023

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Stock Analysis The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but

Stock Analysis

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Mattel

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Mattel had US$2.33b of debt in June 2023, down from US$2.58b, one year before. However, it does have US$299.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.03b.

According to the last reported balance sheet, Mattel had liabilities of US$1.03b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$2.90b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$299.9m as well as receivables valued at US$890.9m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.74b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Mattel has a market capitalization of US$7.49b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Mattel's debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.1 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Even worse, Mattel saw its EBIT tank 48% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Mattel can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Mattel's free cash flow amounted to 45% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Mulling over Mattel's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't such a worry. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Mattel's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Mattel has 4 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Find out whether Mattel is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Mattel, Inc., a children’s and family entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide.

Reasonable growth potential with adequate balance sheet.